Rory McIlroy needs a win in Dubai to tie Colin Montgomerie's record. Eugenio Chacarra holds a slim lead. Here is the math for the title. The math gets much harder if McIlroy finishes second or lower. He must finish at least fourth in the 50-man field to have any chance of overtaking the Spaniard. Chacarra leads by a margin that requires a massive swing in points.