While prediction market odds pointed to a clear Bolsonaro victory, Lula emerged the winner in a tight race. Polymarket and Kalshi priced Flávio Bolsonaro as a roughly 80% favorite hours before Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Sunday's runoff, and traders are split on whether the markets got it wrong. Lula won Brazil’s presidential runoff with 51.8% of the vote after prediction markets had favored Flávio Bolsonaro.